THE BIG IDEA
Somehow, we are halfway through 2026 and it is also a holiday weekend, so it seems a good time to zoom out to see the big picture in the stock market.
Every halfway popular index is up anywhere from mid-single digits to somewhere above 20%. Smaller stocks were on the high end of that range, benefitting from money leaking out of the big tech stocks. Below is the S&P 500 with its 9.32% gain.
In general, money has not been leaving the market. It just flows from one subsegment to another. Whenever a potential warning sign has appeared, the problem has ended up being rehabilitated. Even when Trump’s War scared the market in March, the TACO strategy reversed it and then some.
Zooming in, the rotation among stocks happened on a smaller scale throughout last week. What we saw on Wednesday and Thursday was very different from the results on Monday and Tuesday.
What is done, is done. Where do we go from here?
Currently, the market is warming up to healthcare stocks of all shapes and sizes (see this week’s Watcher stock). There is probably more room for those stocks to run.
Beyond that, let’s pay attention to the “coiled spring” developing on the chart of the S&P 500. It will usually lead to the market launching higher. Not always! But that is the most likely scenario at the moment.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
Mike Zaccardi is on board with looking forward. He recently wrote an article on the StockCharts website titled “Four Big Questions Facing the Stock Market in the Second Half”.
He leads with a question about whether we will follow the typical trend in midterm election years. It is not happy news: “Q3 of the midterm year has been notoriously riddled with volatility and shakeouts.”
Below is a “heat map” he provided showing where gains and losses have been located for the first half of the year.
The other three questions are related to interest rates, energy prices, and the Magnificent 7 stocks.
For the immediate future, he does have some good news: “For now, the most bullish short-term seasonal stretch is at hand, with positive trends often unfolding through mid-July.”
NUMBERS ONLY
7 | All seven of the famous “Magnificent 7” stocks were down in June. Tesla was best, as it was down only 3.5%. Microsoft lost more than 17%. |
23 | The S&P 500 has made an all-time high 23 times so far this year. The most recent one was on June 2. |
- 58.23% | Intuit, a company that should not need to exist, was the worst performing S&P 500 stock in the first half of 2026, down by 58%. |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 2 July 2026
Swingy says: Let's stop and celebrate our fortunes. The near future looks ok, though more uncertain.
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Stocks highlighted here each week are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are provided as ideas for swing traders to follow up on with their own research.
BIIB (Biogen): After a rough couple of years, bottoming out during the Tariff Tantrum of April 2025, Biogen has been a steady climber.
The steady climb seemed to have stalled out at the second week of May this year. However, a six-week convalescence had the shares primed for the next run higher. BIIB jumped up from that base on June 26th.
We often times like to see a bit of a digestion period after big moves. BIIB gave us that and drifted sideways during last week’s holiday shortened trading week. Look for the shares to continue marching higher.
As a Plan B, there is a similar setup in shares of Merck (MRK).