THE BIG IDEA
Last week’s Seen On The Internets item discussed an in-progress seasonal trend of a weak stock market heading into the second half of June.
We posted that information because:
1. it is true (in fact the S&P 500 dropped a further 1.95% this week)
2. it foreshadowed this week’s Big Idea.
The first days of July, leading up to the July 4th holiday, are typically quite strong.
The period from July 1st to July 3rd can include anywhere from 1 to 3 actual trading days, depending on how the calendar looks from one year to the next. You might think that would make analysis tricky, but it actually doesn’t matter if you just treat those days as one.
How good is it? And how reliable?
Well, 14 of the last 15 years have been up, with one measly 0.19% decline.
What’s wrong with you, 2018?
The talking heads on TV will often complain about these days as being “slow”, especially the last business day before the holiday.
Its not your problem to try and line up guests to fill a few hours of programming. We just need to know which direction the market will go.
This year, the stock market is open for business on July 1st and 2nd. It will be closed on Friday, July 3rd for the Independence Day holiday.
If 15 years of history is a useful guide, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect between now and then. Play it accordingly.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
OK geometry fans, this one is for you!
On Thursday, Frank Cappelleri posted a set of charts. Actually the same chart, four times.
He invited readers to choose their favorite shape. Has the stock market formed a rectangle? A triangle? A parallelogram? A diamond?
They are all there. The thing is, they have different implications, depending on what you think you see.
The market will - must - break out of the triangle before it leaves the trading range of the rectangle, for example.
One thing we know is that, months from now, whichever pattern most accurately fits whatever happened between now and then will seem obvious in hindsight.
In case you are wondering… The Prime Wave is mostly into triangles.
NUMBERS ONLY
+ 95.17% | Twice last week, the KOSPI index of the South Korean stock market plunged by more than 5%. It is still up by 95% for the year. |
$13 million | Last week, Micron Technology reported they earned $28.24 billion in the latest quarter. That is roughly $13 million per hour, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. |
$254.66 | While you weren’t looking, Band-Aid maker Johnson & Johnson made a new all-time high on Friday. |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 26 June 2026
Swingy says: The tide is going out for the big stocks. Maybe you can find something if you do your homework.
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Stocks highlighted here each week are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are provided as ideas for swing traders to follow up on with their own research.
WM (Waste Management): While tech stocks continue to be boom-or-bust from one day to the next, we continue to lurk in overlooked areas.
Waste disposal companies had a solid week last week, and Waste Management was among them.
You don’t need any fancy math to see that the stock was trending down from early March until the turn of May to June. Now there has been a higher low and the shares may have also pushed through to a higher high.
At this point, it is more likely that WM continues on its newly formed trend higher, especially if the market continues to move away from tech stocks.
BTW, that big volume you see for that last bar on the chart was related to the options market and not specific to WM.