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THE BIG IDEA
There are alot of subscribers to The Prime Wave who were not around for the dot-com boom (and later, bust) around the turn of the century. Back in those days, whenever a company added “.com” to the end of their name, the share price would go through the roof. Like, immediately.
For the academically inclined, see A Rose.com By Any Other Name.
It didn’t always make sense. Welcome to the stock market.
But the other day Swingy and I started debating, half-joking and half-seriously, if Nike could re-brand themselves as “Nike AI” to arrest the relentless decline in the company’s shares.
NKE stock chart, YTD
The thing is that we may already be past the hysterical speculation phase of the AI age.
Two stocks that we monitor, for trading opportunities as well as for an indication of what the market is doing, are Tempus AI (TEM) and SoundHound AI (SOUN).
The first chart below is Tempus. You can see how it has been trending higher in recent months. For the year, it is up by 29%. Solid, but not stunning.
The second chart is SoundHound. It is down by ¾ from its 2024 high and if it falls much further from here, it will be a 2-year low.
Our sample of n = 2 stocks is not nearly as thorough as the Rose.com paper we referenced.
Still, it is enough to make us think that maybe the market has become more discerning among “AI stocks”. They don’t all move together because they are doing “something with AI”. Traders are already sorting these companies according to their business prospects and not just throwing money at anything AI.
You should do the same. And if a stock you already own decides to rename itself to something more trendy, you might want to use that opportunity to take some profits.
So, Nike AI probably would not be enough to save the swoosh.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
Many people, including us at The Prime Wave, see it as potentially deceiving when market cap weighted indexes like the S&P 500 are doing well when a few mega cap stocks are pulling the numbers up. Such is the case now, with NVDA making a new high on Friday.
But Frank Cappelleri posted this chart copied below, which shows us that “technology” stocks of all shapes and sizes are breaking out to new highs. RSPT is an ETF that includes only tech stocks in the S&P 500 but gives them all equal weighting in the portfolio.
It is worth noting that Meta Platforms (up 26.8% last month!) and Alphabet (a.k.a. Google) are officially classified as Communication Services companies. OTOH, Accenture is grouped in the Technology sector.
The main point of the chart is still valid. Technology in general, and not just NVDA, looks to be breaking out of its base of the last four months.
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NUMBERS ONLY
7 | The S&P 500 is a little more than 1% away from a new all-time high. Yet the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is down 7 weeks in a row. |
35.2% | More than a third of S&P 500 stocks made a 3-month low within the past week. BTW, did you hear? Nvidia set a new intraday high on Friday. |
31 | The CNN Fear & Greed Index is currently at 31, solidly into “Fear” territory. Will we need more fear to get an upturn in the market? |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 2 October 2026
Swingy says: The newspaper says lots of stocks have been going down for weeks. The index is more optimistic.
Find out more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Trade ideas highlighted here each week have a timeframe of 3 days to 3 weeks in mind. They are not recommendations to buy or sell. Swing traders should follow up with their own research.
ARW (Arrow Electronics): Arrow Electronics is a tech stock but not in the S&P 500, so it is not included in the chart featured in this week’s Seen On The Internets. However, it is following a similar pattern.
ARW topped out in the $230s back in June and then settled into a multi-month base. On Friday, the stock took its first step of what could become a bullish run higher.
The company is under-followed by traders. We noticed it has only 513 followers on the Stocktwits website (Datadog has more than 25000). It is unlikely that there is much hot money here, looking to make a quick buck.
We also like that there were a couple days recently with strong trading volume sending prices higher.