THE BIG IDEA
OK, so the big SpaceX IPO day has come and gone.
To say there was a frenzy of trading activity in SPCX would be an understatement. SpaceX issued 555 million shares and trading volume on Friday was 522 million shares. That doesn’t mean that nearly all of the original IPO owners sold their shares. You can also get to 522 million by having the same individual share change hands multiple times during the day.
What is done, is done. What we need to understand now is what typically happens with an IPO on Day 2 (and beyond!).
The short answer: not much.
For a longer answer, let’s start with this table produced by broker Edward Jones back in 2020.
Source: FactSet data compiled by Edward Jones
Those numbers give us a pretty bleak picture of what the future of SPCX might look like.
For a more contemporary view, we can take note of this short 57 second report last week on CNBC.
There is an obvious, and possibly accurate, reason why stocks do so poorly after their IPO. In the case of SpaceX, there were reports that demand for shares was multiple times the amount being offered. Surely a chunk of that demand was from traders who were not necessarily believers in SpaceX as a company but simply saw an opportunity to make a quick buck.
In the coming days and weeks, those traders will close out their holdings. It will put some downward pressure on the share price.
OTOH, SpaceX is was not your typical IPO. Maybe we should not expect it to follow the trajectory that most stocks do after Day 1.
Nevertheless, if you decide to buy shares of SPCX in the near future, you should do it knowing the odds are against you getting a profit out of it.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
Everyone is talking about SpaceX, AI, and data centers. Including popular newsletters.
A corner of the market that nobody is watching is Biotech. Or at least nobody except Roy Gulluoglu.
In this social media post, Gulluoglu points out an interesting development for IBB, the big biotech ETF. Prices are forming a symmetrical triangle, sometimes people call it a “coiled spring”.
In the short text accompanying the chart, he says that he is “monitoring the direction of the breakout”. Most of the time, prices leave the triangle by going in the same direction as the longer-term trend.
NUMBERS ONLY
- 6.99% | The Procure Space ETF dropped 6.99% on SpaceX’s IPO day, after gaining 8.90% the day before. |
30.4% | The AAII sentiment survey found only 30.4% of its members are bullish. That is the lowest level since the third week of March. |
- 21.24% | Shares of Adobe (ADBE) are down by 21.24% so far in June. It was one of the legacy tech stocks that had a speculative run at the end of May. |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 12 June 2026
Swingy says: Traders can't decide whether to laugh or cry. The index leans toward laughing.
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Stocks highlighted here each week are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are provided as ideas for swing traders to follow up on with their own research.
BHE (Benchmark Electronics): It is a Wall Street axiom that stocks take the stairs going up and the elevator going down. Benchmark Electronics is one that is still in stair-climbing mode.
It is a stock that is bumping against new highs and yet is not overextended. BHE has spent the last six weeks forming a nice, dull base. Before that, there was another basing period in February and March, in a range of $53-60.
When will it take the next step up? There is no way of knowing for sure, of course. Another Wall Street axiom is that volume precedes price. If that is true, then last week’s pickup in volume could be a sign that the stock is about to move again.
A failed breakout could turn into a violent reversal here. If it goes higher and then falls below the mid $80s don’t hesitate to pull the plug.