THE BIG IDEA
It’s a running joke between me and Swingy about how the BBC can’t get through a weather forecast without saying that the weather is “unsettled”. How’s the forecast look for tomorrow, Swingy? Unsettled, again.
What would be surprising would be if the weather ever became fully settled.
The weather in Europe will continue to be unsettled….
The stock market is like that, too.
The markets, or at least the TV talking heads, are constantly wrestling with uncertainty about this or seeking clarity about that. Everyone is looking for a level of certitude that never really comes.
These days there are two “big picture” issues that have the attention of the financial markets due to their ambiguousness.
The first one, coming this week, is whether the Federal Reserve will increase the Fed Funds Rate.
After years of insisting that the FOMC doesn’t look at just one number for deciding what to do about rates, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller recently declared in a speech that the inflation report for August would be the key number for him.
Well, the results came in on Friday and there was little to no sign that inflation is going in the right direction (lower!).
Before the report was released, the chatter among traders was that if inflation is still running hot it would be good idea to sell stocks.
But the opposite happened.
Stocks had one of the better days in a while. Maybe, seeing that the Fed really, really needs to raise their interest rates provided the market some cherished clarity.
The next big uncertain outcome will come from the mid-term election. Don’t be surprised if the market starts spinning its wheels in the days and weeks leading up election day (and possibly beyond that if control of Congress is not conclusive).
Knowing how the election turned out will once again give the market a jolt of clarity regardless of the actual results.
But before you know it, another election will appear on the horizon. Everything will be unsettled all over again.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
As they say, history never repeats itself, but it does rhyme.
On Friday, someone calling themselves Bracco or @Braczyy posted the set of charts of the NASDAQ market copied below. On the left is the period from October 1992 through June 1993. On the right is the current period starting from March of this year.
Both charts feature a 30%-ish runup, a drawdown of 10%, a breaking of the downtrend, and then a period of tighter back-and-forth. Back in 1993, it all led to another bullish run.
Will we follow the pattern as we head toward the end of 2026? There is no reason why it must, and 1993 was a long time ago. The NASDAQ market has changed alot since then.
Still, there is also no reason to expect the opposite will happen this time. Take it as another small clue to solve the mystery of where the market is going next.
NUMBERS ONLY
87.3% | According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, there is an 87.3% probability that the FOMC will increase their interest rates at this week’s meeting. |
5 | Five of the “Magnificent 7” stocks are up YTD. Apple leads the way with a 22.22% gain while Tesla lags, down 18.74%. |
- 5.13% | The median stock, as measured by the Value Line Geometric Index, is down 5.13% since August 13th. How’s your portfolio doing? |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 11 September 2026
Swingy says: Hey, it ain't much. The index is a little more bullish than bearish for the near future.
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Stocks highlighted here each week are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are provided as ideas for swing traders to follow up on with their own research.
INTC (Intel): You may remember Intel from such computers as your dad’s old laptop or the discarded one you found at a thrift store.
But Intel is alive and well. After a strong run during the spring, INTC has settled into a basing pattern lasting several months now.
The shares look to be following a classical W pattern that often concludes with prices going higher. The W - some call it a “double bottom” - does not need to be symmetrical to be valid. In fact, it is usually more bullish if the second part of the W does not go as low as the first half.
Currently, INTC is lingering around the high point of the middle of the pattern. If it can push beyond that, look for the shares to head back up towards the previous high at the start of the summer.