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- Tech Stocks This Week
This is the weekly version of The Prime Wave. The weekly is free for all subscribers, daily updates of the Swingex Index are reserved for paid subscribers only.
THE BIG IDEA
A confluence of information from different sources has come together to paint a bearish picture for tech stocks for the near future. By “near future” we are talking specifically about this week. For the Prime Wave and swingex.com this is well within our target area of 3 days to 3 weeks.
First up is Jeff Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac. According to his data, the July options expiration week has coincided with a negative week for the NASDAQ for each of the last seven Julys. The previous Julys were not fantastic either.
The third Friday of July 2025 is, you guessed it, this week.
There is no obvious reason why it should be like this and Hirsch did not offer any theories. Taken in isolation, you might decide to write this off as an unfortunate coincidence.
Next up is a post from Optuma. They pointed out that the technology sector now makes up 32.7% of the S&P 500. The high water mark of 33.0% was set at this time last year.
Optuma wondered whether the tech stocks would break their own record this year but we see it from the opposite point of view. It could be that tech stocks are reaching the limits of their collective bullish valuation and will cool down from here.
Finally, our own Swingex Index has been printing a string of negative numbers lately. You will see the current value later on in this newsletter.
With the negative readings piling up, we expect a soft patch for the market coming soon. It may as well be this week.
Individually, none of these are smoking gun evidence of trouble ahead (though our Index is pretty reliable). But taken together it seems more than reasonable to be on the lookout for some down days coming soon.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
As Swingy would tell you: it’s a jungle out there!
Lately there has been some chatter about a “WhatsApp stock scam”. Maybe you haven’t heard anything about it. Or you did, but didn’t understand the details.
Last week, well-known and respected financial markets journalist Herb Greenberg published a clear and concise explanation of how the scam works. It is highly recommended reading: Anatomy of a WhatsApp Stock Scam.
As Greenberg concludes at the end of the article, it would be next to impossible to stop this type of thing from happening. You might also consider that the current U.S. executive branch has little interest in prosecuting fraud.
Remember: if it sounds too good to be true, trust your instincts and stay away.
NUMBERS ONLY
$57.63 | Shares of $ETOR ( ▲ 1.22% ), a hot IPO from two months ago, made a new closing low on Friday. |
9.0% | $VNM ( ▼ 0.28% ), the Vietnam ETF, was up 9% last week and is now up 32.6% for the year. |
50% | Suddenly, there is a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil. Is it TACO time? |
SWINGEX INDEX
Swingy says: It’s summertime! Go outside and play and leave the market alone. There will be better times to make money. | As of market close on 11 July 2025- 2 |  |
See some historical examples of the Swingex Index in action here.
REWIND
Along with the daily value of the Swingex Index, we sometimes highlight stocks that could do well over the next 3 days to 3 weeks. This is a look back to 2-3 weeks ago to see how they have played out.
$MCD ( ▼ 0.01% ) - On June 27th we saw the hammer candle and the decreasing momentum and looked ripe for a little rebound. It opened at $286 and made a quick 3-day run to $297.
$BROS ( ▼ 0.43% ) - looked to be coiling up by the end of the month and we guessed it would pop higher. It opened July 1 at $68.60 but has disappointed us by drifting lower. It is now $63.33