THE BIG IDEA
The S&P 500 is one reasonably solid day away from making an all-time high. Yet we are seeing many analysts commenting on the “bad breadth” in the market. So many stocks are going down. Even The Prime Wave touched on this in last week’s Seen On The Internets feature.
So, what is going on? Let’s start in the middle. Below is a chart of the Value Line Geometric Index, which aims to track the performance of the median stock.
Doesn’t look good, does it? The median stock peaked in mid-August and been slowly and steadily down ever since.
To paraphrase George Carlin, remember that half of the stocks are doing even worse than this.
On the other hand, there are half that are doing better. We want those stocks! Where are they?
Below we will compare the performance of six different indexes and ETFs over the past month.
From left to right, we have:
S&P 500
Equal-weighted S&P 500
Value Line Geometric Index
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Invesco Low Volatility ETF
The S&P 500 being up by 0.86% is actually about average for a 1-month period. None of the others are average.
Just un-weighting the S&P 500 gets us to a loss of 4.61%, similar to the loss of the median stock. But look at those three ETFs!
Semiconductors and “innovation” are in. Low volatility is out.
It’s why Meta Platforms (a.k.a. Facebook) was up 13.0% last week while The Campbells Company (a.k.a. Campbell’s Soup) was down 6.4%.
No trend lasts forever. We don’t have a guess how long the current trends will continue. But if you are looking for somewhere to put your money for a short-term trade, you could do worse than sticking with semiconductors, AI, or biotech.
Or space. See this week’s Seen On The Internets.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
On Saturday we noticed that two credible traders on the Stocktwits website, independently of each other, were bullish on the same stock - Intuitive Machines (LUNR).
One was a trader known as Thelonius Stonk. They posted this daily chart, apparently as a reminder that they had turned bullish on LUNR two weeks ago.
An hour later, Framus Morrigan posted this monthly chart of the same stock. He noted that the bottom of the price channel continues to support the stock.
If these two traders are taking an interest in the same stock but on different timeframes, then maybe you and I should consider it, too.
NUMBERS ONLY
19 days | For 19 consecutive days, there have been more new lows than new highs on the New York Stock Exchange. |
+ 26.6% | The KOSPI Index of South Korea’s stock market is up by 26.6% since bottoming out at the end of July. |
5.165% | The current yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 5.165%. Bond prices are set by supply and demand in the market. |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 25 September 2026
Swingy says: There is a scent of something in the air, and it ain't fresh mangoes. Be careful!
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Trade ideas highlighted here each week have a timeframe of 3 days to 3 weeks in mind. They are not recommendations to buy or sell. Swing traders should follow up with their own research.
BRKR (Bruker): Bruker is not a household name, and yet the company is worth just short of $10 billion. (Campbell’s is worth about $6 billion!)
The reason for our interest in Bruker is fairly simple and clear. BRKR has bumped up against an invisible ceiling at the $64-65 area several times in recent months. Can it finally break through?
At several conferences this month, management has made positive comments (more positive than expected) about its financial condition and product development. Those comments were the catalyst to have the stock almost ready to break out of its current base.
We see it as worth a gamble that the shares will break higher in the near future.