THE BIG IDEA
The S&P 500 is at its low point for the year so far and people are getting nervous. Peak nervousness nearly always coincides with a meaningful bottom in the stock market. The question, for now, is whether the market is nervous enough for that.
tl/dr: Probably not.
The VIX index is the statistic most commonly used to measure just how agitated the market is feeling. The Prime Wave is not going to break any new ground today and introduce a better mousetrap. The VIX works pretty well as it is.
The VIX finished last week just under 30 at 29.49. When the market is feeling mellow, the index will be between 15-20. A number around 30 is elevated, but not that big of a deal. Not, yet. Things start getting more interesting when the index gets up over 35 or so.
Since the onset of COVID in the spring of 2020, there have been four occurrences where the VIX went above 35.
October 28, 2020
March 7, 2022
August 5, 2024
April 4, 2025
Call me crazy, but I like the market’s chances of going up with a VIX over 35. Even in 2022 that was a quick 10% gain in a few weeks before the market rolled over.
There is nothing magical that happens at exactly 35.00. If the VIX would top out at 34.99 this time, don’t ignore it. We like 35 as a cutoff because there are many more times when the index gets into the low-30s and the correlation with a stock market bottom is not as reliable.
If the market falls further during the coming week, check on the value of the VIX. If it gets beyond the low-30s it is probably an excellent time to put some money to work.
SEEN ON THE INTERNETS
This past week, a chart put together by Bloomberg was making the rounds on the internets. We couldn’t find the original article that contained the chart, but The Kobeissi Letter included it in a social media post of their own.
The S&P 500 has been running in place since the start of the year. The range from top to bottom is only about 2.7%, which is the narrowest trading range this far into a year in the history of the index.
The Kobeissi Letter mentions that it is also the narrowest range for the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to 1896.
Usually, such periods of indecisiveness are followed by explosive moves one way or the other. We’ll see what happens.
A second reason for showing this chart is admittedly off-topic: Man, what a dumb way to display this data.
If the chart looks like a meaningless zig-zag to you, that’s because it is. The range of the S&P 500 at the start of any year has little, if any, connection to prior years. But the chart connects them.
A simple histogram with 2026 being the smallest bar would have made the same point more clearly.
NUMBERS ONLY
1 | Just one of the eleven official S&P sectors was up last week. Can you guess which one? Yes, Energy, of course. |
- 4.70% | While we are looking at sectors, the Consumer Staples sector was down by 4.70% last week. An unusually harsh fall for the makers of bread and toothpaste. |
$248.13 | Shares of Waste Management, Inc. went to an all-time high on Friday. That is about right for such a, uh, lousy, market. |
SWINGEX INDEX
As of market close on: 6 March 2026
Swingy says: There's an opportunity for a good trade here, if the big apes in charge stay out of the way.
Learn more about how the Swingex Index works here.
WATCHER
Stocks highlighted here each week are not recommendations to buy or sell. They are provided as ideas for swing traders to follow up on with their own research.
CGNX (Cognex): It is difficult to find anything not energy-related with an attractive chart. Even some energy stocks look to be running out of gas.
But we did find one interesting chart - in the Electronic Equipment industry - that caught our eye.
Cognex provided the market with a very favorable report back on February 11th and the stock gapped higher the next day. In better times it probably would have held on there, but other issues in the world have knocked everything lower.
Anyway, two things to like: The shares are at a logical stopping point near the previous high water mark at $49 (the orange line on the chart). You may think it is nonsense, but the market does tend to revisit previous landmarks. Cf. the blue line on the chart.
Plus, we have another stock this week with a very low RSI(2) reading. Like NVO last week, CGNX is primed for a bounce here. Whether it is a small bounce or something bigger may depend on other developments in the world.