Who predicted this?

Sleepy Wall Street quietly drifts higher.

Author

Richard Barkand
July 28, 2025

This is the weekly version of The Prime Wave. The weekly is free for all subscribers, daily updates of the Swingex Index are reserved for paid subscribers only.

THE BIG IDEA

The first few months of the new U.S. presidential administration was a source of vertigo for the stock market. Don’t you remember it? As a recap, here’s how things went starting from January 20:

  • up 2.5% in 4 weeks

  • then down 7.8% in the next 6 weeks

  • then down a further10.8% in 2 days

  • then up or down by 1% or more 9 times in 3 weeks

We were told to get used to it. This would be the new normal for the next four years. And then…

Nothing.

It has been more than a month since the last time the market finished a day more than 1% higher or 1% lower. Since then, there were eight days when the market moved by 0.15% or less.

What changed? The market no longer fears the president’s determination to ruin the economy. Nobody believes the president will actually try to impose prohibitive taxes on imported goods. Nobody believes the president will be able to infiltrate the Federal Reserve Bank. The TACO strategy rules the day.

Companies that told investors that they could no longer provide any business forecasts have started doing it again. Major tariff-related news, like this weekend’s announcement of a 90 day freeze on tariff rates for Chinese goods plus an apparent agreement of some kind with the EU, barely impacts the financial markets.

If we want to worry about anything - and of course we want to! - maybe we should worry that it is now a little too calm. There is no reason in sight for the slow drift higher in the stock market to come to an end. Few are scared of anything.

The market will surely suffer some tremors sooner or later, especially after many have let their guard down. That’s the old normal. But when and why it will happen is anybody’s guess.

SEEN ON THE INTERNETS

Last week, we wondered whether stocks were going up or not, because it depends on how you measure it. This week, the S&P 500 ran off a streak of incremental new highs and so “the market” was deemed to have hit new highs.

A few days ago, Donovan Jackson wished for new highs for several other market indexes. They had not yet joined the party.

We didn’t ask, but those three indexes were probably not just random choices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is probably still the second most important of the market indexes. The “Magnificent 7” stocks? Well, nothing happens in either direction without their leadership. And then an equal-weighted index of the market’s most important industry. It can’t be just NVIDIA.

NUMBERS ONLY

5

The S&P 500 made 5 new all-time highs last week, stopped only by the fact that there is no trading on Saturday.

18.3%

Industrial stocks have been the best of the official market sectors this year, up 18.3% so far.

10.5%

The “median” stock, as measured by the Value Line Geometric Average, is still 10.5% below its own all-time high set in November 2021.

SWINGEX INDEX

Swingy says: Nothing to see here. We're sitting on dead neutral.

As of market close on

26 July 2025

0

See some historical examples of the Swingex Index in action here.

REWIND

Along with the daily value of the Swingex Index, we sometimes highlight stocks that could do well over the next 3 days to 3 weeks. This is a look back to 2-3 weeks ago to see how they have played out.

For the week of July 7-11 we were concerned about a possible downdraft in the market and did not open any new positions. We watched as the market drifted sideways.